Isa Yusibov has a background as a Eurasia geopolitical threat analyst, predominantly specializing in Russia, Turkey and former Soviet republics. Primarily based upon his broad space of experience as a senior analyst he has contributed to varied assume tanks and media shops, and labored for numerous UK-based company intelligence corporations over the past years, whereas additionally being a visitor speaker at related establishments such because the Dutch Ministry of Protection and a number of other universities.
The place do you see probably the most thrilling analysis/debates taking place in your subject?
I might level out China in most of them, whether or not it’s concerning the geopolitical penalties of the One Belt One Highway challenge, the rising Chilly Battle rhetoric between China and US, and final however not least the challenges derived from the worldwide corona pandemic and the way that may change the provision chain from a worldwide perspective for instance. There are some matters within the Eurasian area which can proceed to be essential within the coming years, such because the state of affairs in Ukraine, frozen conflicts in post-Soviet hemispheres, power safety and provide to the EU, Chinese language affect in Central Asia, developments concerning Iran and sanctions and naturally the upcoming political transition in authoritarian international locations like Russia and Turkey.
How has the way in which you perceive the world shifted over time, and what (or who) prompted probably the most important shifts in your pondering?
After I was born, the Soviet Union was nonetheless there. The very first geopolitical occasion I skilled, as a child although, was the autumn of the Soviet Union and the creation of a brand new actuality in the entire area with its alternatives and challenges. After I was finding out Political Sciences and continued my grasp’s in Russian and Eurasian Research I already had a set of values, a body which outlined my world view, I might say primarily based on the liberal internationalist side from a theoretic perspective. That has not modified a lot, I have to say. However there are after all sure matters the place I can see a distinction: as a pupil, I used to be rather more enthusiastic concerning the geopolitical energy of the European Union. As a geopolitical analyst, years later, I do take into account the EU being completely toothless in the case of the geopolitical chessboard.
You may have repeatedly dismissed considerations over Turkey doubtlessly leaving NATO. Are you able to clarify your reasoning?
To be trustworthy, I’ve by no means understood why famend assume tanks preserve pushing the state of affairs chance that Ankara will depart NATO and pursue its personal overseas/navy coverage. If there’s one factor which can by no means occur in Turkey, that’s the exit from this alliance. By no means. For a easy cause: NATO is the final word protect defending Turkey towards nuclear powers within the proximity, particularly towards Russia. That’s the reason Erdogan instantly known as NATO Basic Secretary when Putin threatened Turkey after Ankara shot down a Russian navy jet in November 2015. Ankara completely understands that leaving NATO might be a disastrous factor to do. Turkey’s geostrategic place can be approach too essential for the US particularly to simply accept Turkey’s potential (however not possible) exit from NATO. Turkey helps NATO membership of Ukraine and Georgia whereas some Western international locations are cautious about it. Turkey additionally desires extra NATO affect within the Balkans and due to this fact supported Montenegro and Albania as properly.
As Azerbaijan and Armenia clashed within the battle over Nagorno – Karabakh in 2020, we noticed Russia and Turkey supporting totally different sides within the battle. Are you able to clarify what the respective pursuits of the Turks and the Russians are within the Caucasus, and the way the state of affairs has advanced for the reason that ceasefire was brokered between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
It’s certainly an attention-grabbing battle to look at. When the warfare began within the late 80s till a ceasefire in 1994, Russia supported Armenia, however Turkey didn’t help Azerbaijan just because Ankara didn’t wish to become involved in a conflict with Russia. In 2020, Russia was apathic, didn’t help Armenia, however Turkey supplied navy help for Azerbaijan by way of drones for instance. Russia didn’t intervene till a sure level to push each Baku and Yerevan to signal a ceasefire settlement, and the explanation why Russia determined to to not intervene derives from Moscow’s geopolitical pursuits. On the one hand, Putin wished to place the pro-Western Armenian PM Pashinyan underneath strain, alternatively, he wished to point out goodwill to Azerbaijan by permitting Baku to retake its occupied territories. With out Putin’s approval, that received’t be the case. In terms of the pursuits of Russia and Turkey, the area is after all inside their sphere of affect and sure elements overlap them, particularly the South Caucasus. Russia considers the Caucasus as its yard. For Turkey, it’s the final route for opening as much as Central Asia for instance.
Personally, I feel that the warfare in 2020 and its aftermath had been completely deliberate by Russia to exert and enhance its affect within the area. First, the timing was essential: the US was busy with presidential elections, the EU was busy coping with the pandemic. Russia has at all times supported the status-quo of the battle, as in to maintain it frozen. However this time, altering the status-quo had two particular benefits for the Kremlin: on the one hand, Russia introduced again navy personnel to the territory of Azerbaijan, alternatively, it made clear that the political institution in Armenia mustn’t even attempt to depart the Kremlin’s orbit, seeking to the West. At this second, Russia is the one participant within the area with all the required instruments for affect.
How do Russia and Turkey see one another in relation to their geopolitical place?
There has at all times been a rivalry between these two international locations, additionally after they had been empires prior to now. There are not any different nations which have been concerned in so many wars with one another because the Turks and the Russians. And it isn’t a shock as a result of the combat for spheres of affect shouldn’t be one thing new. Beneath Erdogan and Putin, they’ve tried to redefine their geopolitical pursuits and co-operate by way of sure matters, comparable to power, however from a macro perspective they’re two actors with totally different geopolitical aspirations throughout the identical area. And that makes it not possible for Ankara and Moscow to be geopolitical allies. It is just a co-operation of comfort when vital. That’s the reason I oppose the dominant concept within the West that Turkey has been pivoting in the direction of the East (Moscow/Beijing axis) abandoning the West. That’s undoubtedly not the case.
Western media usually reviews on the variations of opinion between Western-European international locations and Turkey. Are you able to clarify the connection between Jap-European states and Turkey? Is that this relationship altering?
It’s an attention-grabbing relationship with new dimensions, altering the general outlook within the area. The principle cause for that’s the truth that the vast majority of these international locations had been as soon as a part of the Soviet Union. So Turkey desires to make use of that to extend its geopolitical affect by providing them co-operation towards Russian affect. And that’s thought-about as an awesome technique from the angle of these Jap European international locations, in order that they have tried to tighten the co-operation with Turkey, principally in financial and navy phrases, but additionally visa-free journey alternatives. In that sense, I’m not shocked that a few of the Jap European international locations have additionally determined to purchase Turkish drones and different navy gear. Poland for instance turned the primary NATO nation to purchase Turkish drones after its successes towards Russian missile programs in Syria, Libya and extra lately within the Nagorno-Karabakh warfare. Ukraine has been following the identical path and has already began utilizing Turkish drones above Donbass, at the moment occupied by separatists backed by the Kremlin.
How do Russia and Turkey observe and have interaction with the rise of China within the worldwide political enviornment?
Relations between Moscow and Beijing had been at all times high-quality, as a result of they didn’t see one another as essential rivals. On the contrary, they’ve tried to co-operate as their essential anti-Western sentiment could possibly be aligned. In terms of Ankara, it’s a bit ambiguous. Turkey has additionally sought co-operation with China and accepted rising Chinese language affect to draw overseas investments in an effort to revive its financial system. In some unspecified time in the future, throughout the go to of Turkish Ministry of Overseas Affairs to Beijing, the minister actually mentioned that China’s safety was linked to Turkey’s safety and no adverse messages in Turkish media can be allowed to disturb the friendship.
However, Turkey has been very quiet concerning the ongoing genocide towards the Uyghurs in China. Turkey was additionally one of many first international locations to import Chinese language corona vaccines. However I feel the state of affairs may change if Erdogan succeeds in attracting Western investments whereas taking place towards China could be a requirement from a geopolitical perspective. The pragmatic in Erdogan received’t assume twice about it.
What are the pursuits of Russia and Turkey within the Center East? Why have we witnessed each international locations supporting totally different sides in Libya and Syria for instance?
Similar as in different areas: geopolitical affect. Particularly with diminishing American affect, each Turkey and Russia have tried to fill that energy vacuum, to reveal their capability as a mediator, to draw new political alliances and so on. The Center East can be a area with entry to the Mediterranean Sea with its (newly) confirmed gasoline reserves, which makes the realm much more attention-grabbing.
Russia and Turkey have supported totally different sides in each Syria and Libya certainly. In Syria, Turkey was one of many first international locations from the Western coalition which demanded the resignation of Assad. Russia intervened in Syria in 2015, as soon as once more utilizing the political vacuum created by the indecisiveness of the Obama administration to punish Assad for using chemical weapons towards his personal individuals. Russia noticed a chance to get on the board, by offering navy help to Assad so he may regain management over the misplaced administrative territories. For Russia, the involvement in Syria shouldn’t be solely about defending Assad, however principally about safeguarding the Kremlin’s entry to the Mediterranean. It is very important be aware that the Soviet Union had its naval base in Syria within the 70s, and it was the one one exterior the borders of the previous Soviet republics which has been operative since then. In the meantime Russia has expanded its air forces in Syria.
In Libya, Turkey helps the central authorities acknowledged by United Nations because the rightful administration, whereas Russia helps the militia led by Basic Haftar. As soon as once more, it’s about geopolitical pursuits. Turkey is within the political continuity of the present authorities which has shut ties to Turkey. Russia is aware of that Haftar will be capable to safeguard Russian power function in Libya, one thing the central authorities doesn’t favour to take action. However each conflicts are intertwined and push Turkey and Russia to barter. Escalation in Syria means de-escalation in Libya and vice versa.
What’s an important recommendation you might give to younger students of Worldwide Relations?
What helped me perceive Russian and Turkish geopolitical ambitions is my information of each languages. If you’ll be able to communicate and perceive the languages of your area of curiosity, you may be one step forward of individuals and analysts with out that linguistic benefit, as a result of they received’t have entry to various sources to provide you with a extra detailed evaluation. So my first recommendation can be: familiarize your self together with your area.
Moreover, I might encourage younger students to be much more crucial towards well-known assume tanks, related strategic establishments and their analyses as they may reveal severe flaws primarily based on unsuitable conclusions and forecasts. Don’t be afraid to problem dominant theories and approaches as a result of they don’t seem to be essentially right methods of pondering in a subject which is consistently evolving.